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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3415 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 2 20.91 (+0.73)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Barry Jenkins (BJENK) 25000 37.42 (0.00)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.BW) 10000 5.00 (0.00)          Elio (ELIO) 150000 111.85 (+0.11)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Despicable Me 4 (DESM4) 69 258.51 (+2.83)          Insidious 6 (NSID6) 150000 45.61 (+4.68)          Verona's Romeo and Juliet (VERAJ) 49999 15.31 (-1.14)          Verona's Romeo and Juliet (VERAJ) 49999 15.31 (-1.14)          Verona's Romeo and Juliet (VERAJ) 49999 15.31 (-1.14)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 89 4.90 (-0.99)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 999 4.90 (-0.99)          Mia Wasikowska (MWASI) 25000 15.73 (+0.19)          Shirley (SHRLE) 150000 0.03 (+0.02)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 99 92.61 (+3.07)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 1.09 (-0.20)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 1.09 (-0.20)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 1.09 (-0.20)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 889 92.61 (+3.07)          Anya Taylor-Joy (ATJOY) 25000 79.88 (+0.01)          Anya Taylor-Joy (ATJOY) 25000 79.88 (+0.01)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 88 4.90 (-0.99)          The Sequel Fund (SQUEL) 20000 20.91 (+0.73)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 13349 261.60 (-0.15)          Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 6500 415.27 (-0.08)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 150000 78.57 (-2.37)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 45000 78.57 (-2.37)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 7000 261.60 (-0.15)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 78319 8.55 (+0.66)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 150000 4.90 (-0.99)          Handling the Undead (HTUND) 150000 0.61 (+0.04)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 43 4.90 (-0.99)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 989 92.61 (+3.07)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 78 5.49 (-1.11)          Nutcrackers (NTCRS) 1 18.95 (+0.01)          Nutcrackers (NTCRS) 150000 18.95 (+0.01)          Nuremberg (NUREM) 1 16.33 (-0.05)          Nuremberg (NUREM) 150000 16.33 (-0.05)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 55 5.49 (-1.11)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 54 4.90 (-0.99)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 12223 92.61 (+3.07)          Naruto (NARUT) 1 38.05 (-0.21)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 38.05 (-0.21)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 789 92.61 (+3.07)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 989 92.61 (+3.07)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 2787 92.61 (+3.07)          I Used to be Funny (IUTBF) 150000 0.22 (-0.01)